SpaceX shares enter the week of October 19 down 10.2% over five trading sessions, two days before the company reports third-quarter results. According to FinanceFeeds, the stock — listed on Nasdaq as SPCX — closed Friday, October 16 at $146.03, down 1.74% on the day and about 35% below its post-IPO high of $225.64, after a week in which complaints from Ukraine about restrictions on SpaceX’s military satellite service coincided with a broad technology-sector selloff.
Key facts
- SpaceX confirmed on October 16 that third-quarter financial and operational results will be published after the US market close on Tuesday, October 20, with a management webcast at 4:30 p.m. Eastern time, FinanceFeeds reported.
- The shares fell from $162.57 on October 9 to $146.03 on October 16, with the steepest declines between October 13 and October 15, when the stock lost more than 9% across three sessions.
- The Nasdaq Composite fell 4.5% over the same week, which FinanceFeeds said shows company-specific news was not the only source of selling pressure.
- Analyst forecasts cited by Investor’s Business Daily point to roughly $12.89 billion in quarterly revenue; ainvest put consensus at about $12.9 billion for the quarter and around $44.5 billion for full-year 2026.
- SpaceX is valued at approximately $2 trillion, which ainvest calculated as roughly 87 times about $23 billion of trailing revenue.
Why it matters
FinanceFeeds described SpaceX’s connectivity business as an important source of operating profits while the company expands into AI infrastructure and develops Starship. That makes Starlink’s reported numbers on Tuesday the clearest public read on whether the satellite-internet business is growing fast enough to fund everything else SpaceX is building.
The dispute over military service has also raised questions about government dependence on SpaceX infrastructure, FinanceFeeds said. Reuters reported that European satellite operator Eutelsat gained roughly 20% on October 16 and SES, the Luxembourg-based satellite operator, advanced more than 7%, as investors reassessed alternatives to Starlink.
What triggered the selloff
FinanceFeeds linked the fall to allegations from Ukrainian officials that restrictions on Starshield, SpaceX’s military-grade communications service, were interfering with battlefield operations. On October 14, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky criticised the limitations, warning that disruptions could endanger lives by affecting the country’s ability to operate defensive and offensive drones.
According to Reuters, Ukrainian officials said military terminals lost connectivity when moving at high speeds, affecting drones that rely on satellite links for guidance and interception. SpaceX chief executive Elon Musk said restrictions on Starshield speeds and usage were controlled by the US military and ultimately the president; President Donald Trump subsequently denied personally ordering the limitations.
By October 16, Zelensky said some services had improved but speeds were still not fully restored. An Associated Press report published October 17 said Ukraine was negotiating with SpaceX and the Pentagon over the remaining speed restrictions.
The bull case
In the second quarter of 2026, SpaceX reported revenue of $7.81 billion, up 92% year over year, FinanceFeeds said. Its Connectivity division generated $4.29 billion in revenue and $1.66 billion in operating income, an operating margin of about 38.6%, while the AI business produced $2.56 billion. ainvest said adjusted EBITDA reached $3.538 billion, up 191%, beating consensus revenue by roughly $914 million.
Starlink ended June with 12 million reported subscriber service lines, double the 6 million a year earlier, according to FinanceFeeds. ainvest described Starlink as the world’s largest satellite-internet constellation and said it had just received clearance for thousands more satellites, with a gross margin near 52% and an EBITDA margin just under 23%. ainvest also said Starship reached orbit for the first time in September 2026, deploying 26 next-generation Starlink satellites — in its words, the first proof the reusable rocket can carry “revenue-grade payloads rather than just flight-test instrumentation.”
The bear case
FinanceFeeds framed the bear argument as the gap between revenue growth and cash generation. SpaceX recorded about $18.37 billion in capital expenditure in the second quarter — more than twice its quarterly revenue — most of it directed at AI infrastructure. For the first six months of 2026, operating cash flow was $3.47 billion against $28.48 billion in capital expenditure, implying roughly $25.01 billion in negative free cash flow on the conventional operating-cash-flow-minus-capex basis.
ainvest put trailing-year capital expenditure at about $43 billion against about $23 billion of revenue, a free cash flow margin of roughly negative 145%, and an enterprise value of about 368 times trailing EBITDA. It said SpaceX is planning a $40 billion debt raise, mostly bonds and bank loans, to buy Nvidia chips for AI, launch and Starlink, and has agreed to pay about $8 billion for a nationwide low-band spectrum portfolio to build Starlink Mobile.
FinanceFeeds added a separate risk: if governments begin diversifying satellite procurement over concerns about service continuity or political influence, SpaceX could eventually face more competition in an important market. It stressed that is a potential future risk rather than evidence of an existing financial loss, a distinction worth keeping in mind amid the pressure the dispute has put on SpaceX’s valuation.
Rivals are moving too
ainvest said shares in AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile, the three largest US wireless carriers, fell between 8.5% and 13.5% on news of the spectrum deal. Satellite-to-phone developer AST SpaceMobile has been hit from the other direction: data compiled by StockAnalysis shows Piper Sandler downgraded the stock to Neutral and cut its price target to $54 from $98, citing competition from SpaceX, while Deutsche Bank upgraded it to Buy on the argument that SpaceX’s spectrum purchase could make AST more appealing to wireless carriers. The same page records ASTS falling 13.54% to $49.22 at a 52-week low, and multiple securities class actions filed against the company through September and October.
What to watch on Tuesday
FinanceFeeds said four indicators will be especially important in the third-quarter release, naming Starlink subscriber growth and average revenue per subscriber among them. For bulls, it said, a stronger-than-expected revenue result, improving operating margins and evidence of disciplined spending would strengthen the case; ainvest’s verdict was that the business case goes to the bull while the stock call goes to the bear.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much cash and debt does SpaceX hold?
SpaceX held $93.52 billion in cash and cash equivalents at June 30 following its IPO and financing activities, according to FinanceFeeds, alongside approximately $38.43 billion in outstanding debt principal. FinanceFeeds said the liquidity gives the company considerable financial flexibility but does not remove the need for future returns on its investment.
Has the Starlink dispute in Ukraine actually cost SpaceX money?
No verified disclosure has established a material reduction in SpaceX revenue attributable to the Ukraine dispute, according to FinanceFeeds. The outlet also noted that the share-price gains at Eutelsat and SES reported by Reuters do not establish that SpaceX has lost any contracts or revenue.
What is Starlink’s average revenue per user, and why do the figures differ?
The sources disagree. FinanceFeeds reported that average monthly revenue per subscriber fell from $85 to $66 in the period covered by the second-quarter results, while ainvest put Starlink’s revenue per user at roughly $81 and cited The Information as reporting an 18% decline between 2023 and 2025.
What revenue growth would a $2 trillion valuation require?
ainvest cited The Motley Fool’s calculation that reaching a $5 trillion market value by 2030, at 35 times earnings and a 35% profit margin, would need about $408 billion in annual revenue. ainvest said that is roughly nine times the current level, a compound annual growth rate of about 74%.
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