SpaceX’s Starship flight on Monday, which carried the first batch of next-generation Starlink broadband satellites to orbit, has renewed worries among rival satellite operators about a shortage of rockets, Light Reading reported on 30 September. The outlet says the milestone for Elon Musk’s space communications business doubled as a reminder that launch capacity could delay competitors’ planned broadband and mobile services.
Key facts
- Light Reading reports that demand for rides to orbit has outstripped the supply of rockets, and that concerns flared up over the summer on speculation SpaceX planned to phase out its Falcon 9 vehicle as Starship came online.
- SpaceX reportedly stopped taking orders for Falcon 9 rides after 2028, according to Light Reading, which also cites a Wall Street Journal report that some companies have been unable to get flights on Falcon 9 beyond that year.
- SpaceX has not officially confirmed its plans for Falcon 9, the outlet says.
- Analysys Mason, the telecoms and space consultancy, counts more than 230 constellation projects in development with 1.5 million satellites planned, most of them for orbital data centres; excluding data centre craft, 133,000 satellites are planned.
- A record 5,000 satellites were sent into orbit in 2025, Light Reading reports.
Why it matters
Light Reading reports that the capacity crunch affects the whole satellite industry but could hit new low Earth orbit (LEO) operators and the nascent direct-to-device (D2D) market harder, because those entrants are still trying to get services off the ground and catch up with Starlink.
Luke Pearce, principal analyst at FDM CCS Insight, told the outlet: “Securing reliable, regular launch slots is the bigger near-term concern than pricing.” He added that higher prices weaken the business case, but launch delays postpone commercial services and the revenue they would generate, which can hurt the economics more and raise concerns among investors and partners. Pearce also said delays risk widening the gap with established competitors such as Starlink.
The scale of the backlog is stark in the consultancy’s arithmetic. At 2025’s industry-best rate, it would take almost 27 years to launch every planned satellite, said Dallas Kasaboski, principal analyst at Analysys Mason, as quoted by Light Reading. “Of course, most of these will not be built, needing launch, due to various market developments (bankruptcies, mergers), but more constellations with more satellites continue to be announced,” he said.
The Falcon 9 question
SpaceX has not spelled out Falcon 9’s retirement, but Light Reading points to a post Musk made on X in August: “Once Starship is flying reliably several times per week, it makes sense to shift super scarce SpaceX engineering and production resources to Starship to get launch rate to several times per day, which means winding down Falcon.”
Starship is bigger and designed to carry more craft to orbit more often, the outlet notes, but the assumption in the industry is that SpaceX will prioritise its own payloads: Starlink satellites for broadband and direct-to-device, AI data centres in space, and government missions. Light Reading says it is not clear if or when SpaceX would add commercial rideshare capacity.
Who is waiting for a ride
Operators needing launches for planned constellations include Amazon Leo, AST SpaceMobile, Elveo, Equatys, Open Cosmos, Telesat Lightspeed and Sateliot, according to Light Reading. Amazon Leo is using rockets from Arianespace, Blue Origin and United Launch Alliance as well as Falcon 9, the outlet says — and our earlier coverage looked at Telesat’s continuing dependence on SpaceX.
AST SpaceMobile, which is building a direct-to-device network, has flown on Falcon 9, the Indian Space Research Organization and Blue Origin’s New Glenn, Light Reading reports. It lost a satellite in April after a New Glenn put it into the wrong orbit, then raised $1 billion in debt to secure launch capacity and for possible acquisitions. Blue Origin, Jeff Bezos’s launch company, had one of its New Glenn rockets explode on the launch pad in May, the outlet says.
New rockets, but not yet
New launch vehicles in development could fill the gap, but building up capacity takes time, the analysts told Light Reading. Pearce named Rocket Lab’s Neutron, Relativity Space’s Terran-R and Firefly’s Eclipse, adding that “more rocket designs will help, but the market still needs reliable vehicles flying frequently which is difficult to replicate.”
Most of the new designs are also small next to SpaceX’s, the outlet reports. Kasaboski offered one comparison: German rocket company Isar Aerospace has a vehicle with 1-tonne capacity, which would need to launch more than 22 times to put the same mass in orbit as a single Falcon 9.
On the incumbent’s side of the ledger, Light Reading puts Starlink at around 11,000 satellites for broadband and around 650 for D2D — well ahead of its nearest rivals. Starship reached orbit and released 26 of the high-capacity “V3” Starlink satellites on this week’s flight, per a related Light Reading report, and we have separately covered what that flight added to Starlink’s capacity.
Background: the road to an orbital Starship
Ahead of the launch, Moneycontrol reported that Flight 14 would use third-generation hardware — Booster 21 as the Super Heavy first stage and Ship 41 as the upper stage — and would attempt something no earlier Starship test had done: place the spacecraft in a stable orbit around Earth, then deploy Starlink satellites.
Moneycontrol detailed the ground campaign at SpaceX’s Starbase site in Texas: a single-engine firing on Ship 41 on 19 August to simulate a deorbit burn, a 60-second static fire of all six of its Raptor engines two days later, and a full-duration static fire of Booster 21’s 33 Raptors on 28 August. As of 11 September, the outlet said, SpaceX had not announced a launch date or time. Note the sources differ in scope rather than substance: Moneycontrol described the plan in advance, while Light Reading reported the outcome.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many satellites does Starlink already have in orbit for broadband and direct-to-device?
Light Reading reports that, looking only at satellite broadband and direct-to-device, Starlink has around 11,000 satellites for broadband and around 650 for D2D. The outlet says that puts Starlink miles ahead of its nearest competitors in both segments.
Which rockets has AST SpaceMobile used, and what went wrong?
According to Light Reading, AST SpaceMobile has used SpaceX’s Falcon 9, the Indian Space Research Organization and Blue Origin’s New Glenn. The outlet reports the company lost a satellite in April after a New Glenn vehicle put it into the wrong orbit, and later raised $1 billion in debt to secure launch capacity and for possible acquisitions.
What did Starship Flight 13 do before this week’s launch?
Moneycontrol reports Flight 13 launched on July 24 as the second V3 mission, with Ship 40 carrying 20 Starlink V3 satellites that were briefly deployed before re-entering the atmosphere. The upper stage restarted a Raptor engine in space and made a soft splashdown in the Indian Ocean, while Booster 20 made a hard splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico after several engines failed to relight.
Why does NASA care whether Starship can reach orbit?
Moneycontrol reports NASA is relying on a modified version of Starship for its Artemis programme, where the vehicle is intended to serve as a lunar lander. That, the outlet says, makes reliably reaching orbit a critical milestone for the rocket.
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