Starlink’s customer turnover is running far above the rates seen at traditional broadband providers even as its app downloads keep climbing, according to a research note from KeyBanc Capital Markets, a US investment bank. The note, written by analysts Brandon Nispel and Michael Leshock, was reported from Washington on 10 November by Broadband Breakfast, a US telecom policy outlet.
Key facts
- Starlink app downloads rose 5 percent month over month to roughly 1.16 million in October, up 55 percent year over year.
- US downloads reached about 389,000, which KeyBanc called an all-time high; international downloads were about 775,000.
- Monthly active users were nearly flat against September. US monthly active users fell 5 percent; international users rose 4 percent.
- KeyBanc estimated churn at about 55 percent annualised, implying monthly churn above 4 percent.
- Estimated monthly average revenue per user was about $113 in October, against $114 in September and down 13 percent year over year.
- KeyBanc expects about 2.4 million net subscriber additions in the fourth quarter, up from 1.6 million in the third.
Why it matters
KeyBanc’s reading is that rising downloads alongside flat active users could mean new customer additions are being cancelled out by people leaving, according to Broadband Breakfast. That matters for anyone judging how durable the service’s growth is, because headline subscriber totals can keep rising while the share of customers who stay does not.
The analysts also said October’s indicators do not show clear evidence of an acceleration in underlying subscriber growth, even though their fourth-quarter net-addition estimate is in line with analyst consensus.
How high is 55 percent churn?
KeyBanc described the rate as unusually high compared with traditional broadband providers, which the firm said typically see monthly churn of 1 percent to 2 percent, as reported by Broadband Breakfast. Its estimate for Starlink is more than 4 percent a month.
The note offers one explanation for that gap. The analysts said many Starlink customers appear to be migrating from existing satellite providers or from DSL connections, while others use the service temporarily or as a secondary connection rather than as a sole home link.
Revenue per user is sliding
KeyBanc put Starlink’s estimated monthly average revenue per user at roughly $113 in October, a dollar below its September figure and 13 percent lower than a year earlier, Broadband Breakfast reported. The note as reported does not attribute that decline to any specific cause.
It lands against a run of pricing moves elsewhere: Starlink recently cut its Residential and Roam prices by 30 percent in Canada, and SpaceX’s reported $14.6bn quarter showed Starlink revenue up 69 percent. KeyBanc’s note does not link its ARPU estimate to either.
No measurable dent in terrestrial broadband yet
The analysts said Starlink has not yet had a measurable impact on traditional broadband subscriber trends, according to Broadband Breakfast. That is a notable finding for a service whose growth has been read by some as a direct threat to cable and telco operators.
On the distribution side, Starlink has lately opened kit sales to any US retailer on commission; the KeyBanc note as reported does not assess that programme.
Capacity and the V3 satellites
KeyBanc said future growth could depend on Starlink’s ability to increase network capacity by deploying its next-generation V3 satellites. The firm added that delays in expanding satellite capacity could give terrestrial broadband providers more time to compete for customers, Broadband Breakfast reported.
The note gives no timeline of its own for V3 deployment and does not quantify the capacity gain the analysts are counting on.
Search interest
One softer indicator in the note moved up. Google search interest in Starlink rose modestly in October, to 87 from 82 in September, on a relative scale where 100 represents peak interest, according to Broadband Breakfast.
What the note does not cover
For readers in Zimbabwe and elsewhere in Africa, the figures carry an important limit. As reported, KeyBanc splits its download and monthly-active-user data only into US and international totals, with no country-level detail, and the churn and ARPU estimates are single global numbers.
The note therefore says nothing about availability, pricing, licensing or regulation in any African market, and nothing about how churn or revenue per user differs between regions. SpaceX does not publish those breakdowns either, which is why KeyBanc is working from app-store and search data in the first place.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does KeyBanc measure Starlink’s user numbers if SpaceX does not publish them?
KeyBanc’s note tracks third-party indicators rather than company disclosures: mobile app downloads, monthly active users of the app, and estimated average revenue per user, as described by Broadband Breakfast. It also tracks Google relative search interest in Starlink, which rose to 87 in October from 82 in September on a scale where 100 is peak interest.
Did KeyBanc say Starlink is losing money or shrinking?
No. KeyBanc still expects Starlink to add about 2.4 million net subscribers in the fourth quarter, more than the 1.6 million it estimates for the third quarter, according to Broadband Breakfast. The firm’s concern is that October’s indicators show no clear evidence of accelerating underlying growth.
Where does KeyBanc think Starlink’s new customers are coming from?
The analysts said many Starlink customers appear to be migrating from existing satellite providers or from DSL connections, according to Broadband Breakfast. Others use the service temporarily or as a secondary connection rather than as their only home broadband.
Does the KeyBanc note include figures for Africa or Zimbabwe?
No. As reported by Broadband Breakfast, the note splits Starlink’s app downloads and monthly active users only into US and international totals, with no country-level breakdown. It gives no separate churn, pricing or subscriber data for any African market.
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