Russia’s Starlink Rival Stumbles in Orbit as Shadowing Fears Grow

By John Maximus · Published 12 October 2026
Reported from named sources and checked against the publishers linked in this article. Corrections: editorial and corrections policy.

Most of the satellites in Russia’s Rassvet-3 batches have failed to climb to the altitude they were designed for, leaving Moscow’s answer to Starlink stuck in a lower orbit than planned, according to an analysis published on 20 September 2026 by Eurasia Review.

The shortfall leaves Elon Musk’s network without a credible regional competitor just as it attracts more hostile attention. On 11 October 2026, BeInCrypto, citing Reuters, reported that Germany’s space commander had warned Russia could squeeze Starlink with “grey-zone” tactics — pressure that stops short of open military confrontation.

Key facts

• Rassvet is being developed by Bureau 1440, a Russian aerospace company, and is due to begin commercial operations in 2027, Eurasia Review reports.
• Bureau 1440 has filed two plans with the International Telecommunication Union, the UN agency that coordinates radio frequencies and satellite orbits: one for 292 satellites at 800 kilometres, the other for 1,350 satellites at 600 kilometres.
• The prototypes worked as intended — three Rassvet-1 satellites launched in June 2023 and were tested successfully in space, and three Rassvet-2 craft followed in May 2024, reaching 800 kilometres and transmitting data to each other and to Earth.

Why it matters

For anyone tracking satellite internet availability in the region, the practical answer is that little changes soon. Rassvet is not scheduled to sell service until 2027, and its current constellation can offer only limited windows of communication over Russian forces in Ukraine, because low-flying satellites pass overhead rather than staying fixed above one point, Eurasia Review reports. Starlink’s own availability in the war zone is controlled rather than open: the outlet says access was cut off for terminals in Ukraine in February, except for a whitelist approved by Ukraine’s Defence Ministry.

The delays matter commercially too. With no rival able to provide nonstop coverage over the region before the end of the decade, Starlink faces no downward pressure on its prices from a Russian challenger — and the analysts quoted by Eurasia Review expect Rassvet’s cost disadvantage to sit in the ground hardware rather than in orbit.

What has gone wrong in orbit

An initial launch of 16 Rassvet-3 satellites, originally planned for 2025, slipped to March 2026. The craft were delivered to about 300 kilometres and were meant to climb to 800 kilometres under their own power. Eurasia Review says one started to descend and burned up, 13 sit at 510 kilometres and two are at roughly 360 kilometres.

A second group of 16 launched in July faces similar problems: 13 are rising at comparable rates, while three have fallen to 300 kilometres or less and may not end up operational. Some analysts believe Bureau 1440 chose to keep the satellites permanently lower because of engine problems, the outlet reports, adding that this does not render them unfit for purpose because Starlink has also lowered many of its own satellites’ altitudes over time.

Space expert Anatoly Zak told the outlet the failure rate is “very painful” and “probably close to unacceptable,” noting early Starlink prototypes reportedly suffered failure rates of up to 13 percent. Zak also doubts Bureau 1440 can hit the 292-satellite target by the end of 2027 cited by Russian officials, saying unrealistic deadlines are common in the Russian space industry.

Terminals and ground sites

Analysts quoted by Eurasia Review argue terminals could become the key bottleneck. Phased-array antennas are expensive and Russia lacks the necessary component base, so some parts may have to come from China. Because Rassvet satellites are less densely deployed and operate farther from Earth than Starlink’s, its terminals may also need to be larger, heavier and more powerful — less suitable for drones and harder to supply in military quantities.

Ground infrastructure is exposed too. Ukraine has repeatedly struck Russia’s Dubna satellite communications centre outside Moscow, and in August Ukrainian drones headed toward the Plesetsk cosmodrome before a planned launch, the outlet reports. Ukraine has also hit the Progress Rocket and Space Center, which is involved in producing Soyuz rockets.

Related: Germany’s warning over satellite shadowing

The threat side of this contest is moving faster than the Russian constellation. Major General Michael Traut, head of German space command, described four Russian military satellites as “chasing” a Finnish satellite that supplies battlefield images to Ukraine during an encounter in May, according to BeInCrypto. ICEYE, the Finnish company that operates the satellite, tried to move it away from the Russian craft, which kept following it. We covered the German space command’s warning about Russian satellites when it first surfaced.

Traut’s concern is not only military. Every evasive manoeuvre consumes fuel, and BeInCrypto reports he warned that repeated evasions could shorten satellites’ working lives and affect internet service, including for civilians outside Ukraine. The outlet also notes a wider governance gap: Western militaries increasingly depend on private satellite networks while responsibility for protecting them remains unclear. No Russian debris attack on Starlink has been reported, and BeInCrypto says the threat remains hypothetical; Russia’s defence ministry and SpaceX did not respond to Reuters’ requests for comment.

Germany is responding on two tracks, BeInCrypto reports: it is developing inspection satellites and considering orbital weapons that could disrupt hostile spacecraft without destroying them, and its military has ordered dozens of satellites to support NATO’s eastern flank. Moscow, meanwhile, has warned that commercial satellites assisting Ukraine could become targets — one reason Starlink terminals turning up in conflict zones are treated as contested equipment.

Background: why militaries want these networks

Jakub Janovsky, an analyst at Oryx, which tracks military equipment losses, told RFE/RL that most traditional military communications systems are designed primarily for voice, making them ill-suited to a battlefield where video feeds from drones must be exchanged constantly. “That is precisely why Starlink and similar systems are virtually indispensable for the military,” he said, in comments carried by Eurasia Review. That demand is pushing several governments toward state-backed rivals to Starlink — and, on the evidence from Rassvet, finding that the orbit is the easy part.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why do satellite internet constellations fly so low?

Eurasia Review explains that the higher a satellite flies, the more ground it covers, but the trade-off is latency — the time data takes to travel to the satellite and back. Television satellites often sit in geostationary orbit around 36,000 kilometres up, which the outlet says does not matter for streaming a movie but can mean a drone operator misses a target. That is why fast-internet satellites fly relatively low.

Have Rassvet terminals been found on Russian drones?

No. Eurasia Review reports that Rassvet terminals have not been found on Russian drones or missiles as of yet. It adds that SpaceX has produced and sold millions of Starlink terminals, while there is still no public evidence of large-scale Rassvet terminal production.

When could Rassvet provide constant coverage over Ukraine?

Oryx analyst Jakub Janovsky told RFE/RL, in reporting carried by Eurasia Review, that in the most optimistic case Bureau 1440 might have enough satellites for nonstop communications over Ukraine by 2028, but delays could push that to 2030.