This is a stock story, not a service story. Shares in Space Exploration Technologies Corp., the Starlink satellite-internet operator listed as SPCX, rose about 5.3 percent to roughly $167.37 in early trading on Monday, October 5, according to Tesla North. The move followed a note from Adam Jonas, an analyst at the US investment bank Morgan Stanley, who repeated his positive rating and $300 price target and said the stock looked cheap ahead of Starship Flight 15. Nothing in the note concerns what Starlink customers pay or where the service is sold.
What is public, and what is not
Morgan Stanley distributes its research to clients rather than publishing it, so the note itself cannot be read directly. Tesla North quoted its title and one line from Jonas — investors have a “unique opportunity to buy shares that look unusually cheap” — and paraphrased the rest, including his catalyst list and valuation method.
That leaves a thin sourcing chain, and it is worth stating plainly: both outlets cited here are describing the same bank’s work, and the $300 and $600 figures are analyst estimates, not company guidance, so no SpaceX filing or statement confirms them. SpaceX has not commented publicly on the note. The one genuinely separate valuation in the record comes from Morningstar, whose numbers point the other way.
Key facts
- Tesla North reported the share move on Monday, October 5, and put SpaceX’s market value at roughly $1.5 trillion.
- Tesla North said the note was published on Sunday, October 4 under the title “SPCX $159: Cheap and Getting Cheaper,” named after where the shares closed before the rally.
- Tesla North also reported that Jonas listed future AI product releases, continued Starship progress and more neocloud contracts priced at $30 to $50 per watt as potential catalysts, which he described as upside-skewed.
- Starship Flight 15 is expected within the next few weeks, according to Tesla North.
Why it matters
Tesla North reported that Jonas used a sum-of-the-parts valuation to argue investors are fully valuing SpaceX’s space and connectivity businesses while assigning little value to its AI opportunity, which spans compute deals, chipmaking and other AI work.
That split is where the independent read diverges most sharply. The Globe and Mail reported in August that Morningstar, the US research firm, values the core launch and Starlink businesses at only about $40 per share, with everything above that depending on the AI and data-centre story. Morningstar’s own optimistic “Moonshot” scenario of $154 per share carries just a 7 percent probability in its analysis, the outlet said — below Monday’s traded price, let alone Morgan Stanley’s target.
What it means for Starlink prices and availability
On both sets of numbers, consumer satellite internet is the mature, already-priced part of SpaceX: it sits inside Morningstar’s $40 per share, and the distance to Morgan Stanley’s $300 is carried by orbital computing. The catalysts Jonas named are AI product launches and compute contracts billed per watt — not new markets, lower monthly fees or faster rollout.
So for anyone checking Starlink availability in their country or waiting on a cheaper plan, the answer here is no change. Neither report identifies a subscriber or pricing lever behind the bull case, neither breaks out Starlink subscriber or revenue figures, and an analyst note moves nothing on SpaceX’s published residential pricing or coverage map. Starlink is the cash base this thesis assumes, not the growth story it sells. The question worth watching instead is whether satellite mass, power and launch slots get allocated to orbital compute rather than to consumer capacity — a trade-off neither outlet quantifies.
What the call rests on
One of the product lines behind that AI outlook is Star Mind, satellites SpaceX is developing that will pack more than 250 kW of solar power for orbital computing, Tesla North reported. That matches the power figure in our own earlier reporting on the 250 kW class of Starlink hardware, but we have found no independent confirmation of the Star Mind programme from SpaceX or a second outlet; treat it as a single-source claim.
The target itself has not moved in three months. The Globe and Mail reported that Jonas initiated coverage on July 7 with a $300 price target, and that in a July 24 note he argued a $100 share price would imply the market was assigning no value at all to SpaceX’s AI business.
Starship is the near-term event
Starship, SpaceX’s fully reusable heavy rocket, is central to the thesis in both reports. Tesla North said Flight 14 reached low Earth orbit for the first time and deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites, with Flight 15 giving investors another near-term event to watch.
The Globe and Mail described Starship as still in development in its August piece, and said Morgan Stanley’s most optimistic model depends on the rocket flying often and cheaply enough to make orbital data centres economic. SPCX shares have moved sharply around Starship milestones before: the stock also drew Citi’s $900 call after the same Starship flight.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Morgan Stanley’s bull case for SpaceX, and what would have to happen?
The Globe and Mail reported in August that Adam Jonas sees a bull case of $600 a share, which would value SpaceX at about $8 trillion and make it the world’s largest company. That scenario assumes SpaceX deploys AI data centres in orbit at half the current cost and that Starlink expands beyond home internet to serve hundreds of millions, or billions, of AI-powered robots by 2040 at an average revenue per user of $35.
Does Morgan Stanley have a downside case for the stock?
Yes. According to The Globe and Mail, Jonas and Morgan Stanley also publish a bear case of $75 a share, although the outlet noted it is far below what the bank’s base case expects.
Do other analysts agree with the $300 target?
The Globe and Mail reported in August that 32 analysts covered SPCX with an average price target of about $227 and a high of $800. It described Wall Street as generally bullish since the IPO, while naming Morningstar as a bear from the start.
What risks did The Globe and Mail flag in SpaceX’s AI business?
The outlet wrote that SpaceXAI is bleeding cash at an alarming rate while racing to build compute capacity, and that its customers can exit their leases penalty-free with 90 days’ notice. It called the setup a very risky bet on a very uncertain future, and said the gap between where SpaceX is today and the $600 bull case is incredibly wide.
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